Egypt maintains distance from Syria’s new leadership

The Egyptian regime, led by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, views recent developments in Syria with significant apprehension

By Arab Center Washington DC

Egypt’s Delicate Balancing Act Amid Syria’s Shift in Power

The Egyptian regime, led by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, views recent developments in Syria with significant unease. The rapid takeover of the country last December by the Islamist rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has sparked concerns in Cairo. Egyptian officials fear that the new Damascus government might embolden Islamist movements, particularly the banned Muslim Brotherhood, to challenge the Sisi administration after more than a decade of suppression. Simultaneously, Egypt has long sought closer ties with Syria and is determined to limit the influence of regional rivals, especially Turkey, in the country. These competing interests are likely to prompt a cautious approach from Sisi as Egypt navigates its relationship with the new Syrian leadership.

The HTS-dominated government’s arrest of Egyptian dissident Ahmed al-Mansour could signal a willingness to address Cairo’s concerns. However, Egypt will likely demand further action and a more inclusive government in Syria before any meaningful rapprochement takes place.

Syria’s Historical Significance

As renowned Arab world scholar Malcolm Kerr noted in The Arab Cold War, Syria has long been a focal point of geopolitical contestation in the Arab world—a dynamic that persists today. Following Syria’s suspension from the Arab League in 2011, prompted by the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown on civilians, Egypt expressed muted support for the decision. After the 2013 ouster of President Mohamed Morsi, led by then-defense minister Sisi, Egypt quietly aligned itself with Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Viewing Assad’s battle against an increasingly Islamist opposition as parallel to its own fight against the Brotherhood, Cairo hoped for Assad’s victory, even as some Gulf allies, notably Saudi Arabia, initially backed Syrian opposition factions.

By 2022–2023, with Assad consolidating control over much of Syria—thanks to support from Russia and Iran—the Arab League’s isolation of Syria began to wane. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia led the charge to reintegrate Assad into the Arab fold, culminating in Syria’s formal readmission to the League in May 2023. Egypt played an active role in this process, hosting Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad in Cairo in what was seen as a warm visit. However, this period of relative stability ended abruptly with HTS’s rapid December 2024 offensive.

Shockwaves from Assad’s Fall

The sudden collapse of the Assad regime sent shockwaves through Cairo. Just three days before Assad fled to Russia, Egypt had reiterated its support for him. In the aftermath, President Sisi sought to distance himself from any perceived parallels with Assad, declaring to journalists, “My hands are not stained with anyone’s blood, and I have not taken anyone’s money.” This statement was likely an attempt to counter comparisons circulating among Egyptians critical of his rule.

The Muslim Brotherhood, seizing the moment, congratulated the Syrian people on Assad’s downfall and called for a “real revolution” in Egypt. Social media posts from figures such as Ahmed al-Mansour, an Egyptian national and former HTS member, added fuel to the fire by openly challenging Sisi’s authority. These developments heightened fears within the Egyptian government of Islamist resurgence, especially given the country’s ongoing economic turmoil marked by soaring inflation and a depreciating currency.

Security and Diplomacy

Egypt has responded to these challenges with stringent measures, including stricter entry requirements for Syrians and the arrest of individuals celebrating Assad’s fall. On the diplomatic front, however, Cairo has remained cautious. Unlike other regional players such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Jordan, which quickly engaged with HTS leaders, Egypt has limited its interactions to sending humanitarian aid and a single phone call between its foreign minister and his Syrian counterpart.

Cairo’s hesitance reflects its wariness of Turkey’s growing influence in Syria. Ankara’s support for HTS and its broader regional ambitions have long been a source of tension for Egypt, which views Turkey as both a rival in the Arab world and a competitor in the Horn of Africa. Egyptian officials are particularly concerned about Turkey’s support for Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, a key factor behind the strained relations between Cairo and Ankara in the aftermath of Morsi’s ouster.

Strategic Considerations

Despite its current caution, Egypt is unlikely to remain on the sidelines in Syria for long. With Gulf states courting the new Syrian leadership and hinting at substantial reconstruction investments, Egypt may see an opportunity to position itself as a key player in Syria’s rebuilding process. Egyptian construction firms, for example, could benefit from contracts funded by Gulf capital. At the same time, Cairo’s longstanding rivalry with Gulf states for Arab leadership will likely motivate it to assert its influence in Syria to avoid being sidelined.

Before any rapprochement with HTS, however, Egypt will demand concrete steps from the new Syrian government. These include cracking down on Egyptian Islamists operating in Syria, curbing anti-regime propaganda on social media, and ensuring that Syria does not become a haven for the Muslim Brotherhood. Cairo will also press for an inclusive government in Damascus, hoping that minority representation could temper HTS’s Islamist agenda.

These demands, however, could create friction. For instance, Cairo’s likely push for the extradition of Egyptian dissidents in Syria may meet resistance from HTS leaders. Nonetheless, Egypt has a long history of navigating inter-Arab politics and is unlikely to sit idly by as Syria’s future takes shape. After its initial shock over the HTS takeover, Cairo will almost certainly reenter the diplomatic fray, balancing its own interests with the region’s evolving dynamics.